Editor's Note: This report is based on survey data from February 2024 that was published in March 2024. This is the most recent data available. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Despite an overall increase of two-tenths of a point in the national unemployment rate over the same time period, the vast majority of the country (44 states plus Washington DC) saw their state unemployment rate essentially hold steady over the month, while the states that saw a meaningful increase or decrease in unemployment rate were evenly split at 3 apiece.
As for new job additions, the country as a whole had an increase of 275 thousand new jobs, but similar to unemployment rates, 46 states plus Washington DC saw no significant change in their net payroll figures while only 4 states recorded net job gains.
Currently there are 6 states plus Washington DC that have unemployment rates above the US national average of 3.9%, while there are 23 states with unemployment rates below the national average.
Below is the breakdown of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) market employment summary for March 2024.
California, at 5.3% unemployment, ended Nevada's (5.2% unemployment) long reign as the state with the highest unemployment rate.
Washington DC, at 5.1% unemployment, was the only other ‘state’ at or above 5%, although there were 4 states between 4% and 5% - Idaho and New Jersey at 4.8% each, and Washington and New York at 4.7% and 4.4%, respectively.
Over the month, only 3 states recorded an increase in unemployment rate - Idaho at plus 0.3%, followed by Connecticut and Washington at plus 0.1% each.
The Dakotas collectively topped the list of states with the lowest unemployment rates for the second month in a row, although they switched positions to put North Dakota on top this time at 2.0% while South Dakota was close behind at 2.1%.
The states with the next lowest unemployment rates recorded last month were Maryland, Nebraska, New Jersey, and Minnesota at 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.6%, 2.7%, and 2.8%, respectively.
3 states saw meaningful reductions in unemployment rate over the month - Tennessee and Wisconsin, which each saw their unemployment rates drop by 0.2%, whereas Massachusetts managed a 0.1% decrease in unemployment.
Over the prior 12 months, only 3 states recorded net reductions in unemployment, led by Massachusetts at minus 0.7%, followed by Pennsylvania and Wyoming at minus 0.3% each.
No states saw statistically significant job losses last month/year.
Of the 4 states that recorded net job additions last month, Iowa saw the largest percentage gain at plus 0.7%, followed by Illinois and Texas at plus 0.4% and Michigan at plus 0.3%.
Texas was the state that had the largest gain in terms of total net payroll entries, adding nearly 50 thousand new jobs over the month. Illinois was next on the list at about plus 23 thousand. Michigan and Iowa added about 15 thousand and 11 thousand net jobs, respectively.
Over the last 12 months, Nevada has the largest percentage gain in net jobs at plus 3.4%, followed by Alaska at 3.1% and South Carolina at 3.0%. The largest number of total new jobs over the year went to Texas, Florida, California, and New York.
The Federal Reserve chose to hold off on lowering key interest rates when it convened earlier this week, citing increased inflationary forecasts, but Fed officials nonetheless reinforced their expectation that they will reduce those rates by 0.75% by the end of the year.
Markets responded favorably to the news, but any reaffirmation of rate-lowering plans remains contingent on inflation returning to 2023 levels after an unexpected upward creep in the first couple of months of 2024.
The Fed will meet again in May to reassess the situation and will be keeping a close eye on those inflation numbers in the meantime.
What remains to be seen is whether or not the economy and job market can hold steady alongside the Fed while interest rates continue in their holding pattern perhaps a little longer than expected before the Fed attempts to execute the final stages of their aimed-for soft landing.
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